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The European Financial Management was founded in 1994 by Dr. John Doukas to serve as a high quality refereed publication outlet that publishes significant new research as it relates to European corporations, financial institutions and capital markets. The EFM journal is published in five issues per year [January, March, June, September and November ] and its acceptance rate is about 3%. The June issue is based on the Keynote Address and a small set of articles selected from the papers presented at the Annual Meetings of the European Financial Management Association. The articles published in the EFM journal are indexed and abstracted in the Social Science Citation Index.
Newly Accepted Papers
Managerial Incentives for Attracting Attention
María Gutiérrez, Nino Papiashvilia, Josep A. Tribó Gine
This paper studies the mechanisms which motivate managers to engage in cheap talk and attract market’s attention in a credible way. We consider stock splits announcements, voluntary earnings forecasts and press releases issued by firms to the media as proxies for managerial cheap talk. We show that: (i) managerial performance-related pay contracts incentivize executives to attract attention; (ii) analysts increase their coverage of firms following cheap talk; (iii) chief executive officers are punished for attracting attention when market prices do not increase following cheap talk. The results are stronger for firms which are most in need for attention.
Keywords: Voluntary Disclosures, Attracting Attention, Cheap Talk, CEO Compensation, Managerial Incentives.
JEL Classification: G30, G32, G34
Keeping it Real or Keeping it Simple? Ownership Concentration Measures Compared
Taylan Mavruk,Conny Overland,Stefan Sjogren.
We analyze the distributional properties of ownership concentration measures and find that measures come from different underlying statistical distributions. Consistent with theory, some measures that are classified to represent a monitoring dimension have a positive influence on firm performance; other measures that are interpreted to represent a shareholder conflict dimension are negatively related to firm performance. However, other measures deviate from this pattern, and therefore, we cannot conclude that simple measures can replace complicated measures. Some measures are more suitable for analyzing the relationship between management and owners, whereas other measures are more suitable for analyzing the relationships among owners.
Keywords: Ownership concentration measures, distributional properties, monitoring dimension, shareholder conflict dimension.
JEL Classification: C18, C46, C81, D74, G34, L25
Why Do Stock Repurchases Change Over Time?
Yuan-Teng Hsu*, Chia-Wei Huang**
Recent studies have shown the time trends of firm stock repurchase behavior. We examine these time changes for stock repurchase through the lens of real activities earnings management. Managers appear more likely to manipulate earnings through stock repurchases since the passage of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act (SOX) in 2002. Furthermore, suspect firms that just missed analyst earnings per share forecasts have higher incentives to manipulate earnings through stock repurchases. The results are not driven by changes in corporate governance associated with the passage of SOX. Overall, our results suggest earnings management can be a significant determinant of the dynamics of stock repurchases.
Keywords: Stock repurchase, earnings management, Sarbanes–Oxley Act
JEL Classification: G18; G31; G35; G38
Investment and asset securitization with an option-for-guarantee swap
Thispaperaddressestheinvestmentandﬁnancingdecisionsofentrepreneursenteringintooptionfor-guaranteeswaps(OGSs). OGSssigniﬁcantlyincreaseinvestmentoptionvalue. Entrepreneurs initially accelerate their investments and then postpone them as funding gaps grow. Guarantee costs increase with project risks when the funding gap is suﬃciently small or large, but the opposite holds true otherwise. Investments are postponed when project risks, eﬀective tax rates, or bankruptcy costs increase. Surprisingly, the higher the project risk, the more the entrepreneur will borrow, with a much higher leverage than predicted by classic models. Entrepreneurs can use OGSs to securitize their assets.
Keywords: Credit default swap, real options, capital structure, asset securitization.
JEL Classification: G12, G23
Trust, Regulation, and Contracting Institutions
Brandon N. Cline John “Nutie” and Edie Dowdle
This paper demonstrates that trust directly influences contracting efficiency. We document that trust reduces demand for contract regulation and positively relates to a high-quality contracting environment, supporting a substitution hypothesis. Furthermore, contract regulation no longer leads to poor contracting outcomes. These findings suggest that lack of trust significantly explains inefficient contracting institutions. Based on interaction effects, we note that trust could complement formal enforcement in countries with weak regulation. As regulation increases, trust substitutes for contract regulation. Overall, trust positively promotes efficient contracting by reducing burdensome regulation and providing an alternative to formal contract enforcement.
Keywords: Contract enforcement, efficiency, trust, regulation
JEL Classification: F2; O17; K2
Estimating Portfolio Risk for Tail Risk Protection Strategies
David Happersberger, Harald Lohre, Ingmar Nolte
We forecast portfolio risk for managing dynamic tail risk protection strategies, based on extreme value theory, expectile regression, Copula-GARCH and dynamic GAS models. Utilizing a loss function that overcomes the lack of elicitability for Expected Shortfall, we propose a novel Expected Shortfall (and Value-at-Risk) forecast combination approach, which dominates simple and sophisticated standalone models as well as a simple average combination approach in modelling the tail of the portfolio return distribution. While the associated dynamic risk targeting or portfolio insurance strategies provide eﬀective downside protection, the latter strategies suﬀer less from inferior risk forecasts given the defensive portfolio insurance mechanics.
Keywords: Tail Risk Protection, CPPI, DPPI, Risk Modelling, Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, Forecast Combination, Return Synchronization.
JEL Classification: C13, C14, C22, C53, G11.
Innovations in Financing: The Impact of Anchor Investors in Indian IPOs
Arnab Bhattacharya, Binay Bhushan Chakrabarti, Chinmoy Ghosh, Milena Petrova
In 2009, the Securities Exchange Board of India allowed qualified institutional investors to anchor initial public offerings (IPOs) by participating in the issue at a price and allocation publicly disclosed preceding the issue. We study anchor investor (AI) in Indian IPOs during 2009–2017. We find the share allotment and the number of AIs separately have significant impacts on valuation and underpricing; however, the net effect is non-significant. Further, AIs significantly influence other institutional investors’ participation in the IPO, and induce lower aftermarket volatility. Overall, our evidence suggests that AIs boost demand for and mitigate ex-ante information uncertainty of IPOs.
Keywords: IPOs, anchor investors, certification, information uncertainty
JEL Classification: G14, G24
DIFFERENCES IN CEO COMPENSATION UNDER LARGE AND SMALL INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP
Onur Kemal Tosun
I examine the influence of large and small institutional investors on different components of chief executive officer (CEO) compensation, using U.S. data for 2006–2015. An increase in large institutional ownership reduces total pay and current incentive compensation (i.e. options, stocks, bonus pay), whereas small institutional investors lower long-term incentive pay (i.e. pension, deferred pay, stock incentive pay). These findings are consistent with managerial agency theory and the substitution of incentive pay by institutional monitoring. The effects are stronger for higher ownership levels and firms with weak governance, less financial distress, long-tenured CEOs, multiple segments, and more free cash flow.
Keywords: Large institutional ownership, small institutional ownership, short-term incentive pay, long term incentive pay, CEO compensation.
JEL Classification: C33, C36, G32, J33, M12
Forecasting the Volatility of Bitcoin: The Importance of Jumps and Structural Breaks
Dehua Shen, Andrew Urquhart, Pengfei Wang
This paper studies the volatility of Bitcoin and determines the importance of jumps and structural breaks in forecasting volatility. We show the importance of the decomposition of realized variance in the in-sample regressions using eighteen competing heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models. In the out-of-sample setting, we find that the HARQ-F-J model is the superior model, indicating the importance of the temporal variation and squared jump components at different time horizons. We also show that the HAR models with structural breaks outperform models without structural breaks across all forecasting horizons. Our results are robust to an alternative jump estimator and estimation method.
Keywords: Volatility Forecasting; Bitcoin; Realized Volatility; Jumps; Structural Breaks
JEL Classification: C53; G15; G17.
Bank Credit Constraints for Women-Led SMEs: Self-Restraint or Lender Bias?
Emma Galli, Danilo V. Mascia, Stefania P.S. Rossi
We test the existence of possible gender biases affecting the firm behaviour in demanding and obtaining bank credit using a cross-country sample of European SMEs. We show consistent evidence that female-led firms are more likely than their male counterparts to refrain from applying for loans. When they apply, apparently female-led enterprises do not seem to face gender discrimination from the lender. Interestingly, however, signs of gender bias appear to arise during the upside phase of the economy. Overall, our study provides support for policy actions aimed at reducing the frictions faced by women-led SMEs when accessing credit markets.
Keywords: Access to finance, Bank lending, SMEs, self-restraint, gender discrimination
JEL Classification: D22, G21, G32, J16.
Banks’ Home-Bias in Government Bonds Holdings. Will Banks in Low-Rated Countries Invest in European Safe Bonds (ESBies)?
This paper offers two new explanations for banks’ home bias in government bond holdings: a sovereign-based rating cap on corporates and the existence of a ‘bank tax’. These are complementary to the four explanations offered in the literature: risk shifting, gambling for resurrection, moral suasion, and a means to store liquidity for financing future investment. Collectively, they cast doubt on the European Union’s demand-led approach to investment in European safe bonds (ESBies) by banks in low-rated countries. Bank regulations such as constraints on large exposure or risk-based capital on credit risk concentration will be needed if the objective is to break the so-called “deadly embrace”.
Keywords: European banking, Bank regulation, Basel capital, Banks’ home-bias.
JEL Classification: F34, G21, G28
CEO Influence on the Board of Directors: Evidence from Corporate Spinoffs
Duong T. Pham
We utilize a sample of spinoff firms that need to form a new board of directors, to shed light on the chief executive officer (CEO) influence hypothesis. We find spinoff boards with a CEO who was the parent firm CEO to be similarly structured to the boards of industry and size-matched peers, whereas spinoff boards with non-parent CEOs are structured for greater monitoring. Consistent with our board structure results, the CEO compensation and replacement decisions of parent CEO spinoff boards are more lenient toward spinoff CEOs, whereas those of non-parent CEO spinoff boards are more consistent with protecting shareholder benefits.
Keywords: Spinoff, CEO influence, board of directors, CEO compensation, CEO turnover
JEL Classification: G34
Economies or Diseconomies of Scope in the EU Banking Industry?
Elena Beccallia, Ludovico Rossib
Banks’ business models are assumed to affect efficiency, as documented in the banking supervisory priorities of the European Union (EU) for 2016–2018 and the 2014 structural reform proposal for the EU banking sector. We investigate evidence of economies and diseconomies of scope for EU. We find cost economies of scope and revenue diseconomies of scope, resulting in profit diseconomies of scope. Separating commercial from investment activities generates economic inefficiencies on costs but efficiencies on revenues and profits. Economies of scope are affected by bank size, liquidity, competition in the banking industry, and the European sovereign debt crisis.
Keywords: Economies of scope; economies of scale; bank business model; stochastic frontier analysis; European banking industry; banking regulation
Market Discipline on Bank Bond Issues Through the Lens of a New Forward – Looking Measure of Loan Quality
Elisa Cavezzali, Siva Nathan, Ugo Rigoni, and Giorgia Simion
Using unsecured bond spreads over the 2007 to mid-2014 period, we test investors’ ability to price bank loan risk. We use a new measure of loan risk that incorporates forward-looking information embedded in ratings assigned by external rating agencies to bank loan portfolios. Only Italian banks are required to systematically disclose this specific information. We find that investors do price forward-looking information inherent in bank loan portfolios. This finding reflects the increase in risk perception following the sovereign debt crisis, which had the strongest effects on peripheral countries, with tensions in the lending market. Overall, these results suggest that our new forward-looking measure provides an additional channel through which market discipline can operate.
Keywords: Market Discipline, Banks, Unsecured Bond Issues, Bank Loan Quality, Sovereign Debt Crisis
JEL Classification: G21
Do foreign stocks substitute for international diversification?
Vicente J. Bermejo Jose M. Campa Rodolfo G. Campos§ Mohammed Zakriya
Using a novel sample of foreign securities available for trade in 42 countries during the last four decades (1979-2018), we examine the rise in importance of foreign stocks for investors in their host countries and its implications for diversiﬁcation across industries and countries. The availability of foreign stocks allows domestic investors to increase their international diversiﬁcation from home by investing in these stocks. We conclude that including foreign stocks in portfolio investments oﬀers an eﬀective substitute for international diversiﬁcation, and signiﬁcantly contributes towards increasing the integration of global markets.
Keywords: International diversiﬁcation; country/industry eﬀects; foreign stocks; international capital markets
JEL Classification: G11; G15; F36
Betas versus Characteristics: A Practical Perspective
Gregory Nazaire, Maria Pacurar, and Oumar Sy
We apply a new dummy-variable method to examine which factor exposures (betas) and characteristics provide independent information for U.S. stock returns in the context of the multifactor models of Hou, Xue, and Zhang (2015) and Fama and French (2015, 2018). We find that betas related to market, size, value, momentum, investment, and profitability factors are not priced. In contrast, firm characteristics related to size, value, investment, and profitability have significant and independent explanatory power, suggesting that they are important in determining expected returns. Finally, the cross-sectional effect of momentum is subsumed when the return on equity is factored in.
Keywords: betas, characteristics, dummy-variable model, asset allocation, multifactor models
JEL Classification: G10; G11; G12
Portfolio Optimization in the Catastrophe Space
Carolyn W. Chang,a Jack S.K. Chang,b Min-Teh Yu,c and Yang Zhaod
In today’s global catastrophe space, the role of insurance-linked securities has evolved from that of a threatened reinsurance substitute to now being a viable complementary reinsurance product, underpinning the convergence of the two markets. This study constructs a two-agent sequential optimization framework to mimic the economics of the reinsurance/insurance markets and shows how NPV-maximizing reinsurers and hedging-cost-minimizing insurers can optimally allocate default-risky catastrophe reinsurance and default-free catastrophe bonds at the interface of these two markets. We analyze paremetric impacts considering interest rate risk, financial leverage, basis risk, differential markup, catastrophe arrival intensity and severity, as well as other relevant characteristics.
Keywords: Catastrophe space; Traditional reinsurance; Catastrophe bonds; Default risk.
How to Build a Factor Portfolio: Does the Allocation Strategy Matter?
Hubert Dichtl , Wolfgang Drobetz ,*, and Viktoria-Sophie Wendt
Factor-based allocation embraces the idea of factors, as opposed to asset classes, as the ultimate building blocks of an investment portfolio. We examine whether there is a superior way of combining factors in a portfolio and provide a comparison of factor-based allocation strategies within a multiple testing framework. Factor-based allocation is profitable beyond exploiting genuine risk premia, even when applying multiple testing corrections. Investment portfolios can be efficiently diversified using factor-based allocation strategies, as demonstrated by robust economic performance over various economic scenarios. The naïve equally-weighted factor portfolio, albeit simple and cost-efficient, cannot be outperformed by more sophisticated allocation strategies.
Keywords: Factor-based allocation; Multiple testing
JEL Classification: G11, G23
Firm Vertical Boundaries, Internal Capital Markets, and Firm Performance
We investigate how vertical relatedness between business segments of firms affects capital allocation within internal capital markets. Using a battery of tests including exogenous import tariff reductions, we show that investments flow towards segments with better investment opportunities in firms with significant vertical relatedness between segments. This benefit of vertical relatedness is more pronounced in economic environments prone to information problems and in imperfectly competitive industries. Firms with significant inter-segment vertical relatedness also exhibit superior productivity and operating profitability. Overall, we show that superior capital allocation is a channel through which vertical integration impacts real outcomes of firms.
Keywords: Internal capital markets, Firm boundaries, Vertical integration, Product market relations, Firm performance
JEL Classification: G30, L25, L22
Is Faster or Slower Trading Better? An Examination of Order Type Execution Speed and Costs
Ryan Garvey, Tao Huang, Fei Wu
We examine order type execution speed and costs for U.S. equity traders. Marketable orders that execute slower exhibit lower execution costs. Those who remove liquidity faster and pay higher trading costs transact in smaller size, spread trading across more venues, take more liquidity, and are better informed. Non-marketable limit orders that execute slower exhibit greater adverse selection; and, larger, uninformed traders who concentrate their trading in fewer venues submit them. Our findings suggest that slowing down the trading process, when faster options exist, can benefit certain market participants who seek to cross the bid-ask spread.
Keywords: Trading, U.S. Equities, Execution Speed, Execution Costs
JEL Classification: G10
Regulatory Stress Testing and Bank Performance
Lukas Ahnert, Pascal Vogt, Volker Vonhoff, and Florian Weigert
This paper investigates the impact of stress testing results on bank's equity and CDS performance using a large sample of twelve tests from the US CCAR and the European EBA regimes in the time period from 2010 to 2018. Passing banks experience positive abnormal equity returns and tighter CDS spreads, while failing banks show strong drops in equity prices and widening CDS spreads. We also document strong market reactions at the announcement date of the stress tests. We complement existing studies by investigating the predictability of stress test outcomes and evaluating strategic options for affected banks and investors.
Keywords: Banks, Stress Testing, Equity Performance, CDS Performance
JEL Classification: G00, G21, G28
Banks’ Non-Interest Income and Securities Holdings in a Low Interest Rate Environment: The Case of Italy
Philip Molyneux, Alessio Reghezza†, Chiara Torriero* and Jonathan Williams
Using a sample of 440 Italian banks over 2007-2016, we find low interest rates motivate banks to expand their fee and commission income and to restructure their securities portfolios. A granular breakdown suggests banks grow non-interest income in various ways including portfolio management, brokerage and consultancy services and increase fee income from current account and payment services. In addition, banks re-balance securities portfolios away from those ‘held-for-trading’ to securities ‘available-for-sale’ and ‘held-to-maturity’. Our findings allude to different behaviour between large and small banks: while larger banks increase brokerage, consultancy and portfolio management services, smaller banks generate fees from customer current accounts.
Keywords: Fee and Commission Income; Securities; Low Interest Rates; Unconventional Monetary Policy; Italian Banking Sector
JEL Classification: E43; E44; E52; G21; F4
Shedding Light on a Dark Matter: Jump Diffusion and Option-Implied Investor Preferences
Hamed Ghanbari, Michael Oancea, Stylianos Perrakis
We compare the equilibrium jump diffusion option prices with the endogenously determined stochastic dominance (SD) option bounds. We use model parameters from earlier studies and find that most of the equilibrium model prices consistent with the SD bounds yield economically meaningless results. Further, the SD bounds’ implied distributions exhibit tail risk comparable to that of the underlying return data, thus shedding light on the dark matter of the inconsistency of physical and risk-neutral tail probabilities. Since the SD bounds’ assumptions are weaker, we conclude that these bounds should either replace, or be used to verify, the equilibrium models’ results
Keywords: jump diffusion; option pricing; stochastic dominance; risk aversion; tail risk; incomplete markets
JEL Classification: G12; G13
Financial constraints and the growth and survival of innovative start-ups: An analysis of Italian firms
Edoardo Ferrucci, Roberto Guida, Valentina Meliciani
We study the impact of measures devoted to relieving financial constraints for the growth and survival of Italian innovative start-ups. Using balance sheet data on innovative start-ups and information on the use of the Italian Central Guarantee Fund for small and medium-sized enterprises, we evaluate whether access to the fund, relieving financial constraints, helps innovative start-ups survive and grow. We find innovative start-ups benefit significantly more than similar control firms. We shed light on the relevance of policies aimed at reducing financial constraints for the growth and survival of innovative start-ups, an issue receiving increasing attention at the European level.
Keywords: innovative start-ups, financial constraints, growth, survival
JEL Classification: : D45, G14, G21, G32
Disentangling Types of Liquidity & Testing Limits-to-Arbitrage Theories in the CDS-Bond Basis
Patrick Augustin, Jan Schnitzler
We disentangle asset-specific, market, and funding liquidity in the CDSBond basis outside and during the 07/09 Global Financial Crisis. Our findings stress the importance of separating different types of liquidity, since all three measures have independently negative impacts on the basis. Funding liquidity emerges as the economically most important liquidity metric. While assetspecific liquidity is cross-correlated in both the cash and derivative markets, funding and market liquidity only matter for the cash market. We exploit the decomposition of the basis to test predictions of limits-to-arbitrage theories. We find strong evidence in favor of margin-based asset pricing and flight-to-quality effects.
Keywords: Arbitrage, Basis, Credit Default Swaps, Corporate Bonds, Credit Risk, Counterparty Risk, Liquidity
JEL Classification: : C1, C23, G01, G12, G14
Neglected Risk in Financial Innovation: Evidence from Structured Product Counterparty Exposure
Marc Arnold, Dustin Schuette, and Alexander Wagner
We investigate the compensation of counterparty exposure in the prices of structured products. Our analysis reveals that product issuers do not compensate retail investors for counterparty exposure before the Lehman default. Post-Lehman, retail prices no longer neglect this risk. We also measure retail investor attention towards issuer credit risk. For a given level of issuer credit risk, counterparty exposure is compensated more when attention is higher. Furthermore, issuers tend to construct products with larger counterparty exposure. Overall, our results shed light on the conditions under which financial engineering generates neglected risk.
Keywords: Neglected risk, structured products, counterparty risk, investor attention
JEL Classification: : D8, G34, M52
Using accounting-based and loan-related information to estimate the cure probability of a defaulted company
Christian Lohmann, Thorsten Ohliger
The cure of a defaulted company has important implications for the estimation of the loss given default (LGD). In this study, we estimate the probability of a defaulted company being cured using data on a large international sample of defaulted companies. More specifically, we examine whether historic accounting information on a defaulted company and loan-related information are associated with that company’s probability of being cured. The main finding of our analysis is that both accounting-based and loan-related independent variables increase the validity of cure prediction models.
Keywords: accounting information, company cure, collateralization, cure probability, defaulted company, Global Credit Data
JEL Classification: : C53, D81, G24, G33
Do Bond Yields Follow the Hierarchy of Risk Post-BRRD?
Doriana Cucinelli, Lorenzo Gai, Federica Ielasi
With a sample of 4,065 bonds issued by 63 banks from 12 euro area countries during 2013–2017, the study investigates how introducing bail-in regulation has influenced bond yields in secondary markets, by distinguishing between non–bail-inable- and different classes of bail-inable bonds. The bail-in risk premium does not follow the hierarchy of risk: it is stronger for less risky bonds. The effect on the spread between senior unsecured and non–bail-inable bonds is much higher than for subordinated bonds. Regarding subordinated bonds, the impact is higher for securities excluded from regulatory capital than for those included.
Keywords: bail-in regulation; difference-in-difference; subordinated unsecured bonds; senior unsecured bonds; market discipline
JEL Classification: : G20; G21
Do Firms Lease to Hedge? CEO Risk Taking and Operating Lease Intensity
Erik Devos and He Li
Operating leases are used extensively for financing, but their ability to separate ownership and use also creates hedging opportunities. We investigate whether firms recognize such opportunities by examining the relation between CEO risk-taking incentives and the use of operating leases. Consistent with firms using operating leases to hedge, we find higher CEO risk-taking incentives lower operating lease intensity. To address endogeneity, we use the adoption of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards 123R as an exogenous shock to option compensation, dynamic panel generalized method of moments, simultaneous equations, and change regressions. Our results are robust to placebo and alternative tests.
Keywords: Corporate leasing, corporate hedging, executive compensation, risk-taking incentives, option pricing theory
JEL Classification: : G32; G34
Insider Trading in Rumored Takeover Targets
Frederick Davis, Hamed Khadivar, Kuntara Pukthuanthong, Thomas J. Walker
We examine insider trading surrounding takeover rumors in a sample of 1,642 publicly traded U.S. firms. Using difference-in-differences regressions, we find that insider net purchases increase within the year prior to the first publication of a takeover rumor, particularly when rumor articles are either accurate (lead to a takeover announcement) or informative (provide substantial justification for the rumor’s publication). Moreover, we find abnormal insider trading to be a significant predictor of takeover announcements occurring within the following year. Finally, passive net purchasing (i.e., selling less rather than buying more) is more pronounced among managing insiders than among non-managing insiders.
Keywords: Insider trading, takeover rumors, information asymmetry, takeover announcements, mergers and acquisitions
JEL Classification: : G14; G18; G34; K22
Hiring Retirement-age CEOs
Ye Wang, Sirui Yin
More than 10% of the S&P 1500 companies have hired a CEO who starts the job near or above the conventional retirement age of 65 years old. This phenomenon exists among all industries and persists over time. Firms are more likely to hire retiring CEOs when the CEO job risk is high and when the firm is in distress. Retiring CEOs receive lower total compensation, the compensation structure puts a higher weight on nonequity-based compensation, and have a shorter tenure. Retiring CEOs can be beneficial to shareholders when they are hired for the right purpose.
Keywords: CEO, Retirement Age, Distress
JEL Classification: : G30, G32, J24, J26
Sentiment-scaled CAPM and Market Mispricing
John A. Doukas, Xiao Han
This study explores the conditional version of CAPM on sentiment to provide a behavioral intuition behind the value premium and market mispricing. We find betas and the market risk premium to vary over time across different sentiment indices and portfolios. More importantly, the state beta derived from this sentiment-scaled model provides a behavioral explanation of the value premium and a set of anomalies driven by mispricing. Different from the static beta-return relation that gives a flat security market line, we document upward security market lines when plotting portfolio returns against their state betas and portfolios with higher state betas earn higher returns.
Keywords: Conditional CAPM, Stochastic discount factor, Time-varying risk premium, State beta, Value premium, Security market line, Market anomalies
JEL Classification: : G12
Recovering the Market Risk Premium from Higher-order Moment Risks
George Chalamandaris and Leonidas Rompolis
We propose a consistent approach for the estimation of the market risk premium. As a Örst step, we deÖne the broadest possible set of ex ante estimators from the viewpoint of a power utility optimizer holding the market portfolio. We then employ an evaluation framework to optimize the parametrization of the methodology. We show that this theoretical framework can still produce reasonable market risk premium estimates, even when the representative agent is not a power utility optimizer. Our results show that the inclusion of higher-order moment risk premia improves the accuracy of the method.
Keywords: Ex ante market risk premium; risk aversion coe¢ cient; physical cumulants; riskneutral cumulants
JEL Classification: : G12, G17, C51, C53.