|January 2018, VOL 25:1|
European Financial Management, VOL 25:1, January 2019
An International Analysis of CEO Social Capital and Corporate Risk-Taking
STEPHEN P. FERRIS, DAVID JAVAKHADZE, and TIJANA RAJKOVIC
This study examines the effects of CEO social capital on corporate risk-taking around the world. We document a significant positive relation between CEO social capital and aggregate corporate risk-taking. Further, we find that CEOs with large social capital prefer riskier investment and financial policies. We also determine that the effect of CEO social capital on corporate risk-taking is moderated by the extent of legal protections provided to shareholders, the financial development, and the culture of the country in which a firm is incorporated. Our results are robust to alternative proxies of risk-taking, alternative model specifications, and tests for endogeneity.
Keywords: Social capital, social networks, corporate risk-taking
JEL Classification: G30, Z13
Target Information Asymmetry and Takeover Strategy: Insights from a New Perspective
PAUL BOROCHIN, CHINMOY GHOSH, and DI HUANG
We examine the relation between information asymmetry and firm value around an M&A. Due to the due diligence and intense scrutiny around M&A announcements, acquisitions are significant shocks to a target’s information asymmetry. We find that M&A announcement-period wealth gains are significantly related to a target’s information asymmetry and the relationship is concentrated in same-state or same-industry mergers. Our difference-in-difference analysis shows that the wealth effects become weaker when overall information environment improves. Furthermore, we document that information asymmetry is an important factor in target selection and the likelihood of diversifying deals, deal size, and deal closure time.
Keywords: Information asymmetry, acquisitions, Firm valuation.
JEL Classification: G14, G34
Do Investment Banks Create Value for their Clients? Empirical Evidence from European Acquisitions
Europe provides an interesting setting to explore the role that investment banks play in acquisitions because it is composed of countries with different legal regimes—the shareholder-oriented common law regime in the UK/Ireland and the stakeholder oriented civil law regime in Continental Europe. Since investment banks are hired to act in the interests of shareholders, and due to differences in disclosure requirements, market transparency, accounting standards and ownership between the UK and Continental Europe, I argue that investment banks are relatively more important in UK-only acquisitions. My findings support this conjecture.
Keywords: Hedge funds, private equity, alternative assets, portfolio choice, asset allocation
JEL Classification: G11, G14, G23
Sentiment, Order Imbalance and Co-movement. An Examination of Shocks to Retail and Institutional Trading Activity
PATRICIA CHELLEY-STEELEY, NEOPHYTOS LAMBERTIDES, and CHRISTOS S. SAVVA
Using order flow imbalance as a measure of sentiment we show that positive and negative shocks to sentiment lead to lower co-movement between portfolio and market returns in the post-shock period. Furthermore, an asymmetry is present as positive shocks to sentiment have less impact on co-movement changes than negative shocks. Moreover, shocks to retail sentiment and the sentiment of two types of institutional investors leads to a reduction in co-movement. Positive shocks to institutional order flow imbalance lead to smaller reductions in co-movement than associated with retail shocks. These effects exist even after controlling for firm specific and market-wide news.
Keywords: Order flow shock and sentiment, co-movement, smooth transition model
JEL Classification: G12, G14
The Payback of Mutual Fund Selectivity in European Markets
FENG DONG and JOHN A. DOUKAS
Is European fund management selectivity skill (1-R2) profitable (alpha)? To examine this question, we use a sample of 2,947 actively-managed domestic equity mutual funds from 11 European countries. We find that high fund selectivity generates significant investor gains. The results are robust to investor sentiment and stock-market dispersion conditions. Moreover, we investigate the moderating effect of country characteristics on the profitability of fund selectivity and find that managers’ selectivity ability is more valuable in countries with high economic development, strong legal system, small but highly liquid equity markets, and young mutual fund industries.
Keywords: European fund selectivity skill, fund manager skill, fund performance.
JEL Classification: G11, G14, G20, G23
Stock Market Integration, Cost of Equity Capital and Corporate Investment: Evidence from Brazil
DAVID HILLIER and TIAGO LONCAN
We study the effect of stock market integration on the cost of capital and investment, using Brazil as a case study. We show that integration, as proxied by foreign ownership, has a positive impact on the financing side by reducing cost of capital. On the output side, we find that integration increases corporate investment, but only for well-governed firms. We contribute to the debate on the pros and cons of financial globalisation, particularly by providing evidence of important linkages between financial integration and real economic activity.
Keywords: Stock Market Integration; Cost of Capital; International Asset Pricing; Investment
JEL Classification: F65, F61, F36, G15, G12
Intangible Assets and the Book-to-Market Effect
The book-to-market effect is well known, but prior research does not analyze the impact of goodwill and related transformations in accounting rules that may bring significant changes to the effect. This paper analyzes the impact of SFAS 142, Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets, issued in 2001. I find that the book-to-market effect is weaker in the post-SFAS 142 period especially in the firms that have goodwill, impairment loss or risk. The book-to-market effect is stronger for subsamples of firms that do not have goodwill. These findings are robust to size groups, different factor models, and test methods.
Keywords: fair-value accounting, valuation of R&D, goodwill impairment, value premium
JEL Classification: G12, M41, O3
European Financial Management, VOL 24:2, March 2018
Negative Bubbles: What Happens After a Crash
William N. Goetzmann, and Dasol Kim
We study crashes using data from 101 global stock markets from 1698 to 2015. Extremely large, annual stock market declines are typically followed by positive returns. This is not true for smaller declines. This pattern does not appear to be driven by institutional frictions, financial crises, macroeconomic shocks, political conflicts, or survivorship issues.
Keywords: Negative Bubbles, Stock Market Crash, Global Markets
JEL Classification: G02, G11, G15, G17
Non-Myopic Portfolio Choice with Unpredictable Returns: The Jump-to-Default Case
Anna Battauz and Alessandro Sbuelz
If a risky asset is subject to a jump-to-default event, the investment horizon affects the optimal portfolio rule, even if the asset returns are unpredictable. The optimal rule solves a non-linear differential equation that, by not depending on the investor's pre-default value function, allows for its direct computation. Importantly for financial planners offering portfolio advice for the long term, tiny amounts of constant jump-to-default risk induce marked time variation in the optimal portfolios of long-run conservative investors. Our results are robust to the introduction of multiple non-defaultable risky assets.
Keywords: Dynamic asset allocation, time-varying hedging portfolio, jump-to-default risk, return predictability, irreversible regime change
JEL Classification: G01, G11, G12, C61
Growth Options and Firm Valuation
Holger Kraft, Eduardo Schwartz and Farina Weiss
This paper studies the relation between firm value and a firm's growth options. We find strong empirical evidence that Tobin's Q increases with firm-level volatility. The significance mainly comes from R&D firms which have more growth options than non-R&D firms. By decomposing firm-level volatility into its systematic and unsystematic part, we document that only idiosyncratic volatility has a significant effect on valuation. Second, we analyze the relation of stock returns to realized contemporaneous idiosyncratic volatility and R&D expenses. Sorting on idiosyncratic volatility yields a significant negative relation between portfolio alphas and contemporaneous idiosyncratic volatility for non-R&D portfolios.
Keywords: Firm valuation, Real options, Volatility, R&D expenses, PCA
JEL Classification: G12
Monetary Policy Uncertainty, Positions of Traders and Changes in Commodity Futures Prices
Nikolay Gospodinov and Ibrahim Jamali
This paper examines the sensitivity of commodity price changes to monetary policy uncertainty. We find evidence that the response of commodity price changes hinges on the sign of the monetary policy shock, the level of monetary policy uncertainty as well as a recession dummy. Uncertainty associated with negative monetary policy shocks leads to a decrease in commodity prices and excess speculative activity. The results from estimating an asset pricing model suggest that monetary policy uncertainty appears not to be a priced risk factor in the cross-section of commodity price changes.
Keywords: Commodity prices, monetary policy uncertainty, futures data, Fama-Macbeth regression, asset pricing model, futures basis, positions of traders, speculators.
JEL Classification: G13, G14, G17.
Pricing Sovereign Debt: Foreign Versus Local Parameters
Michael Bradley, Elisabeth de Fontenay, Irving Arturo de Lira Salvatierra, and Mitu Gulati
Sovereign bonds may be issued under either local or foreign parameters. This decision involves a tradeoff between the sovereign retaining discretion in managing the issue and relinquishing control to third parties. Examining three key bond parameters—governing law, currency, and stock exchange listing—we find that investors generally consider foreign-parameter debt to be less risky than comparable local-parameter debt of the same sovereign. By matching the foreign- and local-parameter bonds of sovereigns that have issued both, we find that, with few exceptions, both investment grade and non-investment grade sovereigns are able to issue their foreign-parameter bonds at relatively lower yields.
Keywords: contracts, asset pricing, bonds, sovereign debt, currency risk, governing law
JEL Classification: F33, F34, G15, K12
European Financial Management, VOL 24:3, June 2018
CEO Talent: A Dime a Dozen, or Worth Its Weight in Gold?
Nicholas Donatielo, David F. Larcke, and Brian Tayan
Very little sophisticated research exists on the size, quality, and efficiency of the labor market for CEO talent. Our paper sheds light on this labor market by considering the perspectives of directors directly responsible for hiring and firing the CEOs of the largest publicly traded corporations in the U.S. We find that directors overwhelmingly believe that the CEO job is exceptionally challenging and only a handful of executives are qualified to run their company and others in their industry. This suggests that the labor market for outstanding CEO talent is significantly tighter and more competitive than governance experts might realize.
Keywords: CEO labor market, CEO recruitment, CEO succession planning, internal talent development, board of directors, CEO compensation, corporate governance
JEL Classification: G34
The Contagion versus Interdependence Controversy between Hedge Funds and Equity Markets
Tae Yoon Kim and Hee Soo Lee
This study considers the ‘contagion versus interdependence’ controversy between hedge funds and equity markets. We find that contagion effects break down the established interdependence between them and conditional return smoothing could play a key role in the contagion process by increasing or decreasing the contagion likelihood during crisis and prosperity. It is noted that the return smoothing tends to produce a biased pattern of returns during crisis and a decreased amount of return during prosperity. These findings are obtained by linking single equation error correction model to factor model and carrying out quantile regression, Z-test and Wald–Wolfowitz runs test.
Keywords: hedge funds; contagion; interdependence; conditional return smoothing, single equation error correction model; factor model
JEL Classification: G01, C22, C58
Asset Pricing Puzzles in an OLG Economy with Generalized Preferences
Amadeu DaSilva and Mira Farka
We seek to explain a number of asset pricing anomalies–the equity premium puzzle, the risk-free rate puzzle, and portfolio allocation puzzle–in a parsimonious overlapping generations model (OLG) with two key features: borrowing constraint and Epstein-Zin-Weil (1989) preference. The model is able to simultaneously match asset pricing moments and individual portfolio decisions using reasonable values of parameters governing behavior. We find that the main driver of savings behavior, equity returns and asset allocation is the relative difference between the two parameters: the level of relative risk aversion and the inverse of the elasticity of substitution.
Keywords: Equity premium puzzle, Overlapping generations model, General- ized Preferences, Portfolio allocation.
JEL Classification: G0, G12, D10, E21.
Selling Winners, Buying Losers: Mental Decision Rules of Individual Investors on Their Holdings
Cristiana Cerqueira Leal, Gilberto Loureiro, and Manuel Armada
We extend the study of the disposition effect – the preference for selling (holding) current winning (losing) stocks- by adding a new element to this decision process: the investors’ preference to purchase additional units of the current losing stocks. Using a unique database, we find that individual investors prefer to sell their winning stocks and, simultaneously, hold and increase their exposure to the losing ones. The additional purchase is pervasive across investors, but stronger for less sophisticated investors. Our evidence suggests that reference prices, prior stock returns, stock visibility, and investor performance and sophistication are determinants of investors’ trading behavior.
Keywords: Disposition effect; additional purchase; portfolio choice; individual investors; mental accounting; trading decision.
JEL Classification: G02,G11,G14
Income Uncertainty and the Decision to Invest in Bulk Shipping
Ioannis Kyriakou, Panos K. Pouliasis, Nikos C. Papapostolou, and Nikos K. Nomikos
We develop a coherent framework for valuing real assets and determining the optimal time to invest. To this end, we model the stochastic nature of income, present a valuation paradigm for freight-linked assets and, using real option theory, we demonstrate its usefulness in investment appraisal and optimal timing of entry in the shipping industry. We find that long-run freight rate and volatility affect the decision timing and investment value that diminishes with increasing vessel age. As time-to-build declines, the value of the option to wait increases implying a high opportunity cost embedded in the investment decision due to construction lags.
Keywords: real options, investment, uncertainty, contingent claims, shipping
JEL Classification: C13, C63, G13, G31, L92
A Unified Theory of Forward- and Backward-looking M&As and Divestitures
Qing Ma and Susheng Wang
In a unified theory of forward- and backward-looking M&As and divestitures, an M&A today may be a cause for a divestiture in the future; conversely a divestiture today may be a consequence of an M&A in the past. M&As and divestitures are not only two sides of the same coin, they are also causes and consequences of each other. In this paper, in a two-period model, two firms consider integrating or separating in each period. We analyze forward- and backward-looking M&As and divestitures, and compare them with static M&As and divestitures.
Keywords: unified framework, forward looking, backward looking, M&A, divestiture
JEL Classification: G34
Corporate Debt Maturity and Stock Price Crash Risk
Viet Anh Dang, Edward Lee, Yangke Liu, Cheng Zeng
We find that firms with a larger proportion of short-term debt have lower future stock price crash risk, consistent with short-term debt lenders playing an effective monitoring role in constraining managers’ bad-news-hoarding behavior. The inverse relation between short-maturity debt and future crash risk is more pronounced for firms that are harder to monitor due to weaker corporate governance, higher information asymmetry, and greater risk-taking. These findings suggest that short-term debt substitutes for other monitoring mechanisms in curbing managerial opportunism and reducing future crash risk. Our study implies that short-maturity debt not only preserves creditors’ interests, but also protects shareholders’ wealth.
Keywords: debt maturity, stock price crash risk, corporate governance, information asymmetry
JEL Classification: G3, G12, G14
European Financial Management, VOL 24:4, September 2018
A Framework for Identifying Accounting Characteristics for Asset Pricing Models, with an Evaluation of Book-to-Price
Stephen H. Penman, Francesco Reggiani, Scott A. Richardson and İrem Tuna.
We provide a framework for identifying accounting numbers that indicate risk and expected return. Under specified accounting conditions for measuring earnings and book value, book-to-price (B/P) indicates expected returns, providing justification for B/P in asset pricing models. However, the framework also points to earnings-to-price (E/P) as a risk characteristic. Indeed, E/P, rather than B/P, is the relevant characteristic when there is no expected earnings growth, but the weight shifts to B/P with growth. Using this framework we resolve a puzzle: in contrast to previous empirical research, we find that leverage is positively associated with future returns, as predicted by theory.
Keywords: Book-to-price; earnings-to-price: growth and risk; accounting principles.
JEL Classification: G11,G12,M41
Focal Points and Firm Risk
Ye Cai and Hersh Shefri.
The “better than average” effect suggests that relative industry standing should serve as an important focal point for corporate managers. March and Shapira (1992) develop a framework to analyze the impact of focal points on firms’ risk profiles. This paper uses the March-Shapira model to investigate the relationship between firms’ relative industry standings and their risk profiles. We find that firms’ equity returns display strong March-Shapira effects. When we examine the different firm decisions that impact risk, we find the strong presence of March-Shapira effects in firms’ decisions about operating cash flows, diversifying acquisition activity, working capital, and capital structure.
Keywords: Acquisition risk; Aspiration-based risk taking, Overconfidence.
JEL Classification: G02, G34
There are Two Very Different Accruals Anomalies
Andrew Detzel, Philipp Schaberl and Jack Strauss.
We document that several well-known asset-pricing implications of accruals differ for in- vestment and non-investment-related components. Exposure to an investment-accruals factor explains the cross-section of returns better than accruals themselves, and senti- ment negatively predicts this factors returns. The opposite results hold for non-investment accruals. Cash profitability only subsumes long-term non-investment accruals in the cross-section of returns and economy-wide investment accruals negatively predict stock- market returns while other accruals do not. These results challenge existing accruals- anomaly theories and resolve mixed evidence by showing the anomaly is two separate phe- nomena: a risk-based investment accruals premium and a mispricing of non-investment accruals.
Keywords:Accruals anomaly, profitability, real investment, cross-section of stock returns
JEL Classification: E44, G12
The Relation between Credit Growth and the Expected Returns of Bank Stocks
Higher bank credit growth implies that excess returns of bank stocks over the next one year are lower by nearly 3%. Credit growth tracks bank stock returns over the business cycle and explains nearly 14% of the variation in bank stock returns over a 1-year horizon. I argue that the predictive variation in returns reflects investors’ rational response to a small time-varying probability of a tail event that impacts banks and bank-dependent firms. Consistent with this hypothesis, the predictive power, as measured by the absolute magnitude of the coefficient on credit growth and the adjusted-R2 at the 1-year horizon, depends systematically on variables that regulate exposure to tail risk.
Keywords: Bank equity returns, Tail risk, Bank credit growth
JEL Classification: G01, G02, G15, G21
The Cost of Capital Effect of M&A Transactions: Disentangling Coinsurance from the Diversification Discount
Patrick Bielstein, Mario Fischer, and Christoph Kaserer
This study argues that in corporate diversification there is a bright side (coinsurance effect) and a dark side (diversification discount). While diversification might reduce systematic risk by its impact on the cost of financial distress, it might increase systematic risk because of inefficient cross-subsidization at the same time. Building on a theoretical model, we analyze mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. over the period 1985 to 2014. We find the coinsurance effect to decrease the cost of capital by 36 bp for the average firm. However, at the same time, we observe a 7bp increase in the cost of capital related to the inefficiency of the firm’s internal capital market. Both effects are statistically significant and robust to endogeneity concerns, different empirical specifications, and variable measurement
Keywords: M&A Transactions; Corporate Diversification; Internal Capital Markets; Cost of Capital.
JEL Classification: G24; G32; G34
Cold Case File? Investor Heterogeneity and Trading.
Anzhela Knyazeva, Diana Knyazeva, and Leonard Kostovetsky.
Institutional investors play a crucial role in the information environment of firms. We argue that heterogeneity in the information ability of institutional investors has a significant impact on trading around information releases. We propose novel measures of within-firm investor heterogeneity and find that investor heterogeneity increases abnormal trading volume around news, holding constant the average levels of investor sophistication. We also find larger spread reductions around announcements for firms with greater investor heterogeneity. The effect of investor heterogeneity on trading continues to hold after accounting for total institutional ownership, the presence of certain types of institutional investors, and analyst coverage.
Keywords: institutional investors, investor heterogeneity, information, trading volume, spreads.
JEL Classification: G10, G12, G14
European Financial Management, VOL 24:5, November 2018
J. B. Heaton
Companies with worthless assets can have substantial efficient markets equity values and debt that trades near par if there is a probability that an irrational bidder will acquire the company. Even if most capital market participants recognize that the company’s assets are worthless, efficient markets pricing of the worthless company’s equity and debt precludes arbitrage, and it may be impossible to persuade the potential irrational bidder to abandon its plans. The worthless company hypothesis may shed light on the valuation of some high-profile start-ups, the 1990s dot-com bubble, and the bad performance of some short sellers.
Keywords: mergers & acquisitions, bad bidders, bubble company, unicorns, short selling
JEL Classification: G02, G32, G34, K22
Are the Fama French Factors Treated as Risk? Evidence from CEO Compensation
Jeremy Bertomeu, Edwige Cheynel, and Michelle Liu-Watts
JEL Classification: TBA
Credit Risk in Italian Banks' Exposure to Non-Financial Firms
Matteo Accornero, Giuseppe Cascarino, Roberto Felici, Fabio Parlapiano, and Alberto Maria Sorre
This paper outlines a framework based on microdata and a structural model to gauge credit risk in banks’ exposures to non-financial firms. Sectoral risk factors are accounted for using a multi-factor model as prompted in Duellman and Masschelein (2006). We use expected and unexpected losses as indicators of credit risk stemming from the corporate sector as a whole, and we put forward a measure of systemic risk relevance of economic sectors. We apply the model to the Italian economy, showing the sensitivity of credit risk indicators to different characteristics of default risk, cyclicality and concentration of economic sectors.
Keywords: Credit risk, Sectoral risk, Systemic risk, Structural Multi-Factor Model
JEL Classification: G21, G32
Earnout Deals: Method of Initial Payment and Acquirers’ Gains
Leonidas Barbopoulos*, Krishna Paudyal, and Sudi Sudarsanam
We analyze the implications of initial payment methods in earnout deals on acquirers’ gains. The results, which are robust to self-selection bias and alternative model specifications, reveal that earnout deals outperform non-earnout deals. The acquirers gain the most from earnout deals when both initial and deferred payments are in stocks. The positive wealth effect of the choice of initial payment method in earnout deals is more prominent in cross-border deals than in domestic deals. Overall, the earnout deals generate higher gains when both the initial and deferred payments help spread the risk between the shareholders of acquiring and target firms.
Keywords: Earnout contracts; Initial payment in earnout deals; Asymmetric information; Acquirers’ gains.
JEL Classification: G34.
The Mixed vs the Integrated Approach to Style Investing: Much Ado About Nothing
Markus Leippold and Roger Ruegg
We study the difference between the returns to the integrated approach to style investing and those to the mixed approach. Unlike the mixed approach, the integrated approach aggregates factor characteristics at security level. Recent literature finds that the integrated approach dominates the mixed approach. Using statistical tools for robust performance testing, we demystify these findings as a statistical fluke. We do not find any evidence favoring the integrated approach. What we do find is that the integrated approach exhibits a higher sensitivity to the low-risk anomaly. However, this reduction in risk does not lead to an improvement in performance.
Keywords: Factor investing, integrated and mixed approach, value, momentum, low volatility.
JEL Classification: G11, G12, G14
Hong-Yi Chen, Pin-Huang Chou, and Chia-Hsun Hsieh
The intermediate-term momentum persistency is not universal among all stocks. More than 40% of winners and losers immediately fall out of their respective groups in the month following formation, resulting in a monthly loss of more than 17% for a momentum strategy constructed on such stocks. By contrast, persistent winners and losers, defined as those staying in their groups for at least one more month, exhibit much stronger momentum persistency. Further analysis indicates that, consistent with the delayed reaction hypothesis for price momentum, the persistency is stronger for stocks with greater information asymmetry and more extensively heterogeneous investor beliefs.
Keywords: delayed reaction hypothesis, duration, heterogeneous beliefs, information asymmetry, persistent momentum strategy
JEL Classification: G11, G14
The Effectiveness of Asset, Liability, and Equity Hedging Against the Catastrophe Risk: The Cases of Winter Storms in North America and Europe
Yang-Che Wu, and Ming Jing Yang
The winter storms in North America and Europe are responsible for the majority of the insured natural catastrophe losses. This study analyzes the effectiveness of insurers hedging against the winter storm risk in terms of asset (catastrophe derivatives), liability (catastrophe bonds), and equity (catastrophe equity puts) risk management perspectives. The analysis results of the various financial performances show that our suggested hedging strategies are effective based on the long-term positive profit and the improvement in the insolvency ratios. The conclusions of this study provide the insurers with the less volatile premiums and more diversified portfolios under the catastrophe risk management.
Keywords: Catastrophe Derivatives, Catastrophe Bonds, Catastrophe Equity Puts, Catastrophe Risk Management
JEL Classification: G32, G11, C15