European Financial Management 2015 Archive
European Financial Management, VOL 21:1, January 2015
Investor Inattention: A Hidden Cost of Choice in Pension Plans?
Magnus Dahlquist and Jose Vicente Martinez
Abstract:
We investigate inattention on the part of pension plan participants using a dataset
covering savings in Sweden's Premium Pension System. These data permit direct
comparison of the investment behaviors of pension and retail mutual fund
investors. Unlike retail mutual fund investors, pension investors do not seem to
react to past fund performance. This behavior means that pension investors face
a greater risk of being caught in poorly performing funds. Our evidence suggests
that inertia and inattention to past performance may translate into poorer investment
results for pension investors. We discuss a potential change in the design
of dened contribution pension schemes that may mitigate costs for inattentive
investors while maintaining
exibility for attentive investors.
Keywords:
ows, inertia, pension plan design, performance, redemptions.
JEL Classification: G11, G23, H55.
Sell-side Analyst Research in the Presence of Conflicts of Interest
Daniel Arand and Alexander G. Kerl
Abstract:
Using a unique dataset of conflicts of interest reported by a large investment bank, we
examine the relationship between conflicts of interests and sell-side analysts?behavior in
setting target prices and stock recommendations. We demonstrate that the aggregate number
of simultaneous business ties with a subject company is positively associated with optimism
in target prices and recommendations. Furthermore, the results provide some indication that
stocks for which conflicts of interests exist earn lower risk-adjusted returns than unconflicted
stocks. However, we find no evidence that investors discount the value of sell-side analysts?
research with respect to the prevailing level of conflicts.
Keywords: Target Prices, Stock Recommendations, Conflicts of Interest, Bias, Regulation
JEL Classification: G14; G15
Liquidity Dynamics in an Electronic Open Limit Order Book: An Event Study Approach
Peter Gomber, Uwe Schweickert and Erik Theissen
Abstract:
We analyze the dynamics of liquidity in an electronic limit order book using the Exchange Liquidity Measure (XLM), a measure of the cost of a roundtrip trade of given size V. We use intraday event study methodology to analyze how liquidity shocks - large transactions and Bloomberg ticker news - affect the XLM. We find that resiliency after large transactions is high, i.e., liquidity quickly reverts to normal levels. Large trades are 'timed'; they take place at times when liquidity is unusually high. Bloomberg ticker news items do not have a discernible effect on liquidity.
Keywords: Liquidity, limit order book, resiliency
JEL Classification: G 10.
Does State Ownership Drive M&A Performance? Evidence from China
Bilei Zhou,Jie(Michael) Guo, Jun Hua and Angelos J. Doukas
Abstract:
This paper examines the role of state ownership in mergers and acquisitions by analyzing the short- and long-term performance of Chinese state-owned enterprise (SOE)
acquirers relative to privately owned enterprise (POE) peers from 1994 to 2008. The empirical results show that SOE acquirers outperform POE acquirers in terms of
long-run stock performance and operating performance. In addition, consistent with previous literature, our results suggest that the gains from government intervention
outweigh the inefficiency of state ownership in Chinese mergers and acquisitions.
Keywords:State ownership, mergers and acquisitions, market valuations, Chinese
JEL Classification: G14; G34
The Returns to Hedge Fund Activism in Germany
Wolfgang Bessler, Wolfgang Drobetz, Martin Seim and Jan Zimmermann
Abstract:
We investigate the financing strategies and valuation effects of 247 IPO firms at the "Neuer Markt" in Germany that either issued additional equity (SEO)
or repurchased shares (SRP) within five years after going public. IPOs issuing additional equity exhibit a temporary out-performance before the event,
but negative announcement returns and a long-run underper-formance. In contrast, repurchasing IPOs experience positive announcement returns and no long-run underperformance. Free cash flow problems, resulting from mandatory equity issu-ance at the IPO, explain the SRP decision. Our findings for SEOs are consistent with a staged financing strategy, while we find no evidence for market timing.
Keywords: Initial Public Offerings, Share Repurchases, Seasoned Equity Offer-ings, Valuation Effects
JEL Classification: G32, G35
Informed Trading and Market Structure
Charlie X. Cai, Jeffrey H. Harris, Robert S. Hudson and Kevin Keasey
Abstract:
We examine London Stock Exchange trading around information releases and link market quality dimensions with
market structure during periods with heightened interaction between informed and uninformed traders. We find
support for both the hypothesis that automated electronic markets minimize trading costs for liquid stocks and
the hypothesis that adverse selection costs are minimized with intermediated trading. We examine how news affects
both dealer and electronic systems and find that electronic markets are prone to greater stealth trading and
post-trade volatility, both consistent with the proliferation of algorithmic trading and short-term volatility
events such as the May 6, 2010 "flash crash."
Keywords:Market Structure; Informed Trading; Trading Systems; London Stock Exchange.
JEL Classification: G10, G15.
Directors' Dealing and Post-IPO Performance
Hafiz Hoque and Meziane Lasfer
Abstract:
We use a unique mainly hand-collected dataset to assess the impact of directors' trades on IPOs' long-term returns. We find that IPOs where directors are net sellers are more likely to generate positive long-run returns which occur mostly before the sell trades, suggesting that directors sell when their IPOs reach their optimal values. Conversely, IPOs where directors are net buyers underperform significantly. Our results are not consistent with insider trading in seasoned firms, partly because the valuation uncertainty of IPOs and the specific motivations to trade weaken the precision of the trades' informativeness.
Keywords:Long run IPO performance, insider trades, London Stock Exchange, market timing.
JEL Classification: G12, G14, G24.
European Financial Management, VOL 21:2, March 2015
Investors' Judgments, Asset Pricing Factors, and Sentiment
Hersh Shefrin
Abstract:
This paper presents results based on new data showing that the relationships involving investors' judgments of risk and variables such as beta, size, and book-to-market equity (B/M) have the same directional effects as those involving realized returns. Moreover, the relationships involving risk are mediated by Baker-Wurgler sentiment, with directional effects similar to those that have already been documented for realized returns. In this regard, Baker-Wurgler sentiment mediates the time series of investors' judgments of expected return and the cross-section of their judgments about risk. The results are consistent with the position that investors' judgments of risk and return, both mediated by sentiment, influence market prices.
Keywords: risk, sentiment, size, book-to-market, beta, representativeness, affect
JEL Classification: D03, G10, G12
Unique Option Pricing Measure with Neither Dynamic Hedging nor Complete Markets
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Abstract:
Proof that under simple assumptions, such as constraints of Put-Call Parity, the probability measure for the valuation
of a European option has the mean derived from the forward price which can, but does not have to be the risk-neutral one,
under any general probability distribution, bypassing the Black-Scholes-Merton dynamic hedging argument, and without
the requirement of complete markets and other strong assumptions. We confirm that the heuristics used by traders for
centuries are both more robust, more consistent, and more rigorous than held in the economics literature. We also show
that options can be priced using infinite variance (finite mean) distributions.
Keywords:option theory, derivatives, risk management, hedging
JEL Classification: G13, D81, A14
Higher-moment risk exposures in hedge funds
Georges Hubner, Marie Lambert and Nicolas Papageorgiou
Abstract:
This paper singles out the key roles of US equity skewness and kurtosis in the hedge fund return generating process. We propose a conditional higher-moment
model with location, trading, and higher-moment factors to describe the dynamics of the equity hedge, event-driven, relative value, and fund of funds styles.
If the volatility, skewness, and kurtosis implied in US options are used by fund managers as instruments to anticipate market movements, managers should adjust
their market exposure in response to variations in these moments. We indeed show that higher-moment premia improve the conditional asset pricing model across all
hedge fund styles.
Keywords: Hedge funds; implied higher-moments; conditioning factors
JEL Classification: G10; G12
Common Factors in the Performance of European Corporate Bonds: Evidence before and after the Financial Crisis
Wolfgang Aussenegg, Lukas Goetz, and Ranko Jelic
Abstract:
We examine monthly excess returns for 23 Euro-denominated corporate bond indices and propose a new specification for bond asset pricing models. Specifically, we separate level and slope components of term and default risk factors and examine liquidity risk. Our results suggest that level and slope risk factors, derived from complete interest rate and default spread term structures, significantly improve the explanatory power of the Fama and French (1993) 2-factor model. We also demonstrate different sensitivities of risk factors before and after recent financial crisis. The results are robust to calendar seasonality and the consideration of equity market returns.
Keywords:asset pricing, Euro corporate bonds, factor models, financial crisis, anomalies
JEL Classification: G12, G14, G15, G30
Does Centralization of FX Derivative Usage Impact Firm Value? Some Empirical Evidence
Hakan Jankensgard
Abstract:
Previous research has shown that firms identified as derivative users tend to be valued at a premium relative to non-users. In this paper I develop the hypothesis that the 'derivative premium' is higher in firms with centralized FX exposure management, compared to a decentralized approach in which subsidiaries retain bank contacts and/or decision-making authority. This study benefits from unique survey data on the FX management practices and derivative usage of Swedish listed firms. The data supports the centralization-hypothesis. Firms with a centralized approach have a statistically significant derivative premium of around 15%, whereas there is no premium for decentralized firms.
Keywords: Centralization, risk management, currency risk, derivative, hedging
JEL Classification: G30, G32.
Inferring Default Correlation from Equity Return Correlation
Sheen Liu, Howard Qi, Jian Shi and Yan Alice Xie
Abstract:
This paper presents a new approach for estimating default correlation by linking default correlation to equity return correlation while preserving the fundamental relation between default and asset correlations in the structural framework. Our hybrid model thus overcomes a long-standing empirical difficulty that default correlation estimation relies on the unobservable asset process. The empirical analysis shows that our hybrid model demonstrates a considerable improvement over the existing structural model of Zhou (2001) for the sample periods of 1970-1993 and 1990-2010. We also illustrate the difference between the two models in predicting default correlations over the period of the 2008 financial crisis.
Keywords: Default correlation; equity (return) correlation; defaultable bonds; structural model
JEL Classification: G1, G2.
The Role of Pre-existing Liquidity in Determining Price Efficiency and Liquidity Gains Following the Introduction of SETSmm
Patricia L. Chelley-Steeley
Abstract:
In this paper we examine the impact that the new trading system SETSmm had on market
quality measures such as firm value, liquidity and pricing efficiency. This system was
introduced for mid-cap securities on the London Stock Exchange in 2003. We show that there
is a small SETSmm return premium associated with the announcement that securities are to
migrate to the new trading system. We find that migration to SETSmm also improves
liquidity and pricing efficiency and these changes are related to the return premium. We also
find that these gains are stronger for firms with high pre SETSmm liquidity and weaker for
firms with low SETSmm liquidity.
Keywords: microstructure, pricing efficiency, trading system, liquidity
JEL Classification: G15
Leasing Decisions and Credit Constraints: An Empirical Analysis on a Sample of Italian Firms
Stefania Cosci, Roberto Guida and Valentina Meliciani
Abstract:
Although lease financing provides a significant source of funds enabling many companies to invest, few studies examine the determinants of leasing in Continental Europe and we are aware of no study on the Italian case. This paper investigates the relationship between financial constraints and leasing decisions for a sample of I3.talian firms. In particular, it investigates the determinants of firm leasing decisions, the degree of substitutability between leasing and debt, and the impact of leasing on the probability of firms feeling "credit rationed". Our results support the hypothesis that leasing preserves capital, thus helping to relieve credit constraints.
Keywords:
Leasing, debt finance, credit rationing, capital structure
JEL Classification: G32
European Financial Management, VOL 21:3, June 2015
Cash Flow Multipliers and Optimal Investment Decisions
Holger Kraft and Eduardo S.Schwartz
Abstract:
Valuation multipliers are frequently used in practice. By postulating
a simple stochastic process for the firm's cash
flows in which the drift and
the variance of the process depend on the investment policy, we develop a
stylized model that links the cash
flow multiplier to the optimal investment
policy. Our model implies that the multiplier increases with investment at
a decreasing rate. On the other hand, the multiplier is inversely related to
discount rates. Using an extensive data set we examine the implications of
our model. We find strong support for the variables postulated by the model.
Keywords:Firm valuation, Valuation multiples, Real options
JEL Classification: C61, G12, G13, M40
Time-Varying Credit Risk Discovery in the Stock and CDS Markets: Evidence from Quiet and Crisis Times
Santiago Forte and Lidija Lovreta
Abstract:
We analyze the dynamic relationship between the stock and the CDS market during the period 2002-2008. We document that the stock market's informational dominance reported in previous studies holds only in times of financial crisis. During tranquil times, the CDS market's contribution to price discovery is equal or higher than that of the stock market. Moreover, the credit risk level of the company has a positive effect on the information share of its stocks beyond the effect of the overall state of the economy. We show that these conclusions do not contradict the argument of insider trading in credit derivatives.
Keywords:
Credit risk, credit default swap market, stock market, price discovery
JEL Classification: G12, G14
The Safety and Soundness Effects of Bank M&A in the EU: Does Prudential Regulation Have any Impact?
Jens Hagendorff and Maria J. Nieto
Abstract:
This paper studies the impact of European bank mergers on changes in key safety and soundness measures of both acquirers and targets. We find that acquirers in cross-border deals tend to perform better when their home country prudential supervisors and deposit insurance funding systems are stricter than that of the target. For target banks, we find that stronger supervision and tougher deposit insurance funding regimes result in positive post merger changes in liquidity and performance. Overall, while bank mergers have undermined bank safety and soundness in some cases, our evidence indicates that strong regulation and supervision can partly ameliorate this.
Keywords: banks, mergers, Europe
JEL Classification: G21, G34, G28
Are Cooperative Banks a Lever for Promoting Bank Stability? Evidence from the Recent Financial Crisis in OECD Countries
Laura Chiaramonte, Federica Poli and Marco Ercole Oriani
Abstract:
Based on a sample of cooperative, savings, and commercial banks from OECD countries, this paper examines whether and to what extent cooperative banks affected average bank soundness during 2001-2010. To account for the impact of the recent financial crisis, we analyse separately the pre-crisis period (2001-2006) and crisis years (2007-2010). Unlike published claims that blame the fragility of banking systems on the presence of non-profit-maximizing entities, our main finding is that cooperative banks have explanatory power for stabilization during the crisis years, but only above a certain market share threshold.
Keywords:
financial stability, z-score, cooperative bank, financial crisis
JEL Classification: G01, G21
When Do Sell-side Analyst Reports Really Matter? Shareholder Protection, Institutional Investors and the Imformativeness of Equity Research
Daniel Arand, Alexander Kerl and Andreas Walter
Abstract:
We examine whether the informativeness of sell-side analyst reports depends on the strength of the regulatory environment of a country and the regulatory background of the institutional investors of a company. Based on both measures that we use to proxy the informativeness of analyst research (i.e., short-term market reaction and forecast errors with respect to corporate earnings), our results show that the information value of research increases as the level of investor protection increases. This result is robust to different specifications of investor protection. We further demonstrate that analyst forecasts are more (less) valuable when the majority of institutional investors are from strong (weak) investor protection countries.
Keywords:
shareholder protection, institutional investors, analyst reports, regulation
JEL Classification: G14; G15; G18; G24; G32
The Empirical Determinants of Credit Default Swap Spreads: A Quantile Regression Approach
Pedro Pires, Joao Pedro Pereira and Luis Filipe Martins
Abstract:
We study the empirical determinants of Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads through quantile regressions. In addition to traditional variables, such as implied volatility, put skew, historical stock return, leverage, profitability, and ratings, the results indicate that CDS premiums are strongly determined by CDS illiquidity costs, measured by absolute bid-ask spreads. The quantile regression approach reveals that high-risk firms are more sensitive to changes in the explanatory variables that low-risk firms. Furthermore, the goodness-of-fit of the model increases with CDS premiums, which is consistent with the credit spread puzzle
Keywords: Credit Default Swap, Credit Risk, Liquidity, Quantile Regression
JEL Classification: G12, G13, C21
Foreign Debt Usage in Non-Financial Firms: A Horse Race between Operating and Accounting Exposure Hedging
Tom Aabo, Marianna Andryeyeva Hansen and Yaz Gulnur Muradoglu
Abstract:
Previous studies show that foreign exchange exposure from international sales can be hedged by foreign debt. We go beyond the foreign sales measure by using a unique database with detailed exposure information on Danish non-financial firms with international operations. Our results indicate that foreign debt is used to hedge foreign assets and subsidiaries (accounting exposure) as opposed to foreign sales (operating exposure). The paper adds to the literature on corporate hedging by highlighting the importance of accounting exposure in the hedging behavior of corporate managers and the perceived need to reduce risks due to currency mismatches between assets and liabilities.
Keywords:exchange rate exposure management; foreign debt; foreign assets; foreign subsidiaries; accounting exposure
JEL Classification: F23, G32
European Financial Management, VOL 21:4, September 2015
Idiosyncratic Volatility, Institutional Ownership, and Investment Horizon
Doina C. Chichernea, Alex Petkevich and Blerina Bela Zykaj
Abstract:
This paper reevaluates the cross-sectional effect of institutional ownership on idiosyncratic volatility by conditioning on institutions investment horizon. Prior literature establishes a positive link between growing institutional ownership and idiosyncratic volatility. However, this effect may vary depending on the type of institutional ownership. We document that short-term (long-term) institutional ownership is positively (negatively) linked to idiosyncratic volatility in the cross section. These opposite effects persist after controlling for institutional preferences and information-based trading and remain qualitatively unchanged after controlling for endogeneity. This suggests that short-term (long-term) institutions exhibit higher (lower) trading activity, which increases (decreases) idiosyncratic volatility.
Keywords:institutional investors; idiosyncratic volatility; investment horizon; trading preferences.
JEL Classification: G12; G23
Change Analysis of Dependence Structure and Dynamic Pricing of Basket Default Swaps
Li Ping Li and Ze-Zheng Li
Abstract:
In this paper we use a type of dynamic copula method to characterise the dependence
structure between financial assets and price basket default swaps (BDSs). We first employ a
goodness-of-fit test and a binary segmentation procedure to analyse the change of dependence
structure between the obligations underlying a BDS, then present a numerical example to
demonstrate the change analysis and BDS pricing process. We find that in different time
periods, the best copula fitting the data is not the same; therefore the tranche spreads of
the BDS are also different. We also compare our results with those obtained from static
copulas and dynamic Gaussian copula. The results show that the static copula and dynamic
Gaussian copula methods underestimate the spreads for riskier tranches and overestimate
those for less risky tranches.
Keywords: change analysis; basket default swap; dynamic copula; dependence structure
JEL Classification: G12, G13, G17
Liquidity and asset prices: An empirical investigation of the Nordic stock markets
Hilal Anwar Butt and Nader Shahzad Virk
Abstract:
This paper presents a simplified single period asset-pricing model adjusted for liquidity and tests it for the Nordic markets.
The detailed empirical evidence is presented from Finnish test case. Empirical testing of small yet developed markets is motivated
by the increased relevance of the illiquidity effect for illiquid assets/markets. The main evidence reports liquidity risk makes
sufficiently larger part of predicted factor risk premium than the market risk, contrary to comparable U.S. evidence. This highlights
the ability of liquidity related model betas in capturing the time variation in expected returns across illiquid (Nordic) markets than market beta.
Keywords: Asset-pricing model, illiquidity effect, predicted factor risk premium, model betas
JEL Classification: G10, G12, G15.
On the Role of Cultural Distance in the Decision to Cross-List
Olga Dodd, Bart Frijns and Aaron Gilbert
Abstract:
This paper examines the role of culture in the choice of the destination market for cross-listing firms. We argue that firms cross-list in markets with greater cultural similarities, because 1) investors are more willing to invest in culturally familiar firms and 2) managers seek to avoid potential conflicts with culturally disparate investors and managers. Employing Hofstede's cultural dimensions, we find that firms from developed countries display greater cross-listing propensity towards culturally similar countries. These results are robust to various alternative cultural measures. We further find that it is mainly the difference in uncertainty avoidance and individualism that affect cross-listing decisions.
Keywords:National culture, cultural distance, international cross-listing.
JEL Classification: C24; G10.
Equally-Weighted vs. Long Run Optimal Portfolios
Carolina Fugazza, Massimo Guidolin and Giovanna Nicodano
Abstract:
Out-of-sample experiments cast doubt on the ability of portfolio optimizing strategies to outperform equally weighted portfolios,
when investors have a 1-month time horizon. This paper examines whether this finding holds for longer investment horizons over which
the optimizing strategy exploits linear predictability in returns. Our experiments indicate that investors with longer horizons on average
would have benefited, ex post, from an optimizing strategy over the period 1995-2009. We analyze performance sensitivity to investor risk aversion,
to the number of predictors included in the forecasting model and to the deduction of transaction costs from portfolio performance.
Keywords:Equally weighted portfolios; strategic asset allocation; Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs); ex post performance; return predictability; parameter uncertainty.
JEL Classification: G11, L85.
European Financial Management Association (EFMA) Annual Meetings: A Retrospective Evaluation
John A. Doukas and Andreas Walter
Abstract:
We provide a retrospective evaluation of the European Financial Management Association (EFMA) annual meetings from 2001 to 2010. In the 10-year investigation period, 2,986 papers have been presented at the annual EFMA meetings. Presented research has, in accordance with the objective of the EFMA, a strong focus on European financial topics, and most accepted papers were written by European authors. Our analysis reveals that empirical papers analyzing European datasets have a positive impact on the likelihood of being published in the European Financial Management (EFM), the journal of the EFMA, compared to other peer-reviewed journals. This evidence appears to be consistent with the EFM objectives to foster more research on European finance issues.
Keywords: finance conference, publication analysis, retrospective evaluation
JEL Classification: G0
How to Pay Envious Managers: A Theoretical Analysis
Marc Crummenerl, Tilmann Doll and Christian Koziol
Abstract:
This paper analyzes how envy affects the decisions of competing managers and their
optimal stock-based compensation from the perspective of shareholder value. We consider
a typical framework in which managers can induce effort to reduce production
costs and make decisions regarding production volume. At first glance, envy between
managers from competing firms appears to be an unfavorable characteristic because it
does not align the interests of managers with those of shareholders. However, our model
finds that envy is a powerful incentive mechanism. The model yields three key findings:
(i) envious managers outperform self-interested managers, (ii) firms optimally hire envious
managers, and (iii) shareholders do not grant any stock-based compensation to
envious managers.
Keywords:Executive compensation, Inequity aversion, Cournot competition
JEL Classification: D21, D63, J31, M52
European Financial Management, VOL 21:5, November 2015
Measuring Systemic Risk: Common Factor Exposures and Tail Dependence Effects
Wan-Chien Chiu, Juan Ignacio Peña, and Chih-Wei Wang
Abstract:
We model systemic risk using a common factor that accounts for market-wide shocks and a tail dependence factor that accounts for linkages among
extreme stock returns. Specifically, our theoretical model allows for firm-specific impacts of infrequent and extreme events. Using data on the
four sectors of the U.S. financial industry from 1996 to 2011, we uncover two key empirical findings. First, disregarding the effect of the tail
dependence factor leads to a downward bias in the measurement of systemic risk, especially during weak economic times. Second, when these measures
serve as leading indicators of the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, measures that include a tail dependence factor offer better forecasting
ability than measures based on a common factor only.
Keywords:Systemic risk, Tail dependence effects, Correlated jumps, Predictability
JEL Classification: G01, G10, G18, G20, G28.
The Lure of the Brand: Evidence from the European Mutual Fund Industry
Jan Jaap Hazenberg, Fabian Irek, Willem van der Scheer and Mariela Stefanova
Abstract:
We investigate the effect of the fund familys brand on mutual fund flows by using a unique
data set that represents a direct assessment of the brand image of European fund providers.
A superior brand image increases the sensitivity of flows to good past performance, while it
protects against outflows when there is underperformance. Flows of funds of independent
providers have a higher sensitivity to past performance and brand image than flows of funds of
providers owned by banks or insurers. These fi
ndings highlight the importance of marketing
and brand in generating growth for the fund families.
Keywords:Mutual funds, fund flows, fund performance, marketing, brand image.
JEL Classification: G11, G23, M31
Gains to Chinese Bidder Firms: Domestic vs. Foreign Acquisitions
Emma L. Black, Angelos J. Doukas, Xiaofei Xing and Jie (Michael) Guo
Abstract:
This paper examines whether foreign acquisition of Chinese firms improves share price performance relative to domestic acquisitions. The results show that foreign acquisitions are not associated with positive abnormal returns in the short-run, but that they are so associated for domestic acquisitions. Foreign acquisitions also realize significant long-run gains, especially when the acquiring firm is large. Specifically, we find that there is a significant, positive long-run outperformance of 29.81% for large foreign acquisitions benchmarked against domestic ones, while large foreign acquisitions earn 22.39% in aggregate. Our evidence suggests that large Chinese acquirers gain when they expand their operations abroad, consistent with the literature on reverse internalisation.
Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions, China, Financial Performance, Scarcity, Cross-Border, Foreign Direct Investment, Multinational, Diversification
JEL Classification: G14; G34.
Heterogeneity in the Speed of Capital Structure Adjustment across Countries and over the Business Cycle
Wolfgang Drobetz, Dirk C. Schilling and Henning Schroder
Abstract:
This study analyzes the heterogeneity in the speed of capital structure adjustment.
Using a doubly-censored Tobit estimator that accounts for mechanical mean reversion in leverage ratios,
the speed of adjustment is 25% per year in a large international sample, supporting the economic relevance
of the trade-off theory. Differences in the adjustment speed across distinct financial systems are
attributable to differences in the costs of adjustment. Macroeconomic and micro-level supply-side
constraints also affect the dynamics of leverage. Firms adjust more slowly during recessions, and
the effect on adjustment speed is most pronounced for financially constrained firms in market-based
countries.
Keywords:Capital structure, speed of adjustment, institutional arrangements, business cycle, dynamic panel methods
JEL Classification: G30, G32
Is there a Positive Risk-Return Tradeoff? A Forward-Looking Approach to Measuring the Equity Premium
Dimitrios Koutmos
Abstract:
This article revisits the puzzling time-series relation between risk and return on the stock market portfolio.
It replaces the standard ex post mean returns with forward-looking calculations of the equity risk premium derived
from the classic Gordon stock valuation model. The article estimates the equity premium for several industrialized
markets and finds that conditional market risk is significantly priced in the context of asset pricing theory both
in the short- and long-run using various specifications for volatility. Findings herein lend credible support for the
presence of a positive intertemporal risk-return relation and suggest that perhaps ex post realized returns are
unjustifiably used to make ex ante inferences regarding expected returns and to motivate asset pricing tests.
Keywords:asset pricing, intertemporal risk return tradeoff, GARCH, realized volatility, fed model, earnings-yield, dividend-yield
JEL Classification: C50, G10, G11, G12, G15, G17
Multifactor Models and their Consistency with the ICAPM: Evidence from the European Stock Market
Fabian Lutzenberger
Abstract:
This paper conducts a European investigation of eight multifactor models that have been previously tested using US data.
Many results confirm the US evidence: Most of the eight multifactor models investigated do a good job explaining the
cross-section of our testing portfolios, but most models are not justifiable by the Intertemporal CAPM (ICAPM).
Carhart’s four-factor model shows the best empirical performance and consistency with the ICAPM. Nevertheless,
some results counter the US evidence: Fama and French’s three-factor model is inconsistent with the ICAPM and
the models of Hahn and Lee (2006) and Koijen et al. (2010) show low explanatory power.
Keywords: Asset pricing; Europe; ICAPM; multifactor models; risk factors
JEL Classification: G12
